Metals Surge as Gold, Silver and Copper Hit Record Highs
Credit: The Edge
Commodities have posted eye-watering gains since late 2025 as traders position themselves for a year in which the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to cut borrowing costs further to bolster US growth. That’s aided the case for base metals, while precious metals are also benefiting from renewed attacks on the Fed by the Trump administration and an increasingly tense geopolitical backdrop.
Silver jumped as much as 5.3% to top US$90 (RM364.27) an ounce for the first time on Wednesday, while gold notched another all-time peak. Tin was the standout among base metals, and was up as much as 6% at one point, while copper hit an all-time high before paring gains. Many metals are benefiting from prospects for better manufacturing demand, including in growth sectors like artificial intelligence.
A speculative frenzy in China has helped turbocharge the metals rally, with traders and deep-pocketed funds piling into commodities like copper, nickel and lithium. Trading volumes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been elevated since late December, and total open interest across SHFE’s six base metals hit a record on Wednesday.
The so-called debasement trade — in which investors avoid government bonds and currencies due to worries over ballooning debt levels — has also underpinned the rally, especially in precious metals. A relatively weak greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for many buyers. Gold rose 65% last year, while silver jumped almost 150%, with each metal seeing its best annual performance since 1979.
“When gold moves first, it usually signals declining trust in fiat currencies,” said Hao Hong, chief investment officer at Lotus Asset Management Ltd and an influential Chinese market commentator who has backed metals. “Everything is measured against gold, then most assets look cheap right now, which is a strong tailwind for commodities, especially metals.”
Base metals have broadly benefited from expectations of tighter supply this year as global mines and smelters struggle to keep up with demand. The copper market saw multiple major disruptions last year, while aluminium faced constraints in top producer China, and tin exports were crimped from second-biggest supplier Indonesia.
“A broader base of investors is starting to recognise the more structural trend of some metals as well as the problem on the supply side,” said Alexandre Carrier, portfolio manager at DNCA Invest Strategic Resource Funds.
And some of the commodities — notably silver and copper — have been aided by the prospect of US import levies. Copper’s gains have been partially driven by a looming White House decision on import taxes later this year, prompting traders to rush metal to US ports.
The market is also waiting for the outcome of a US Section 232 investigation, which could lead to tariffs on precious metals such as silver, platinum and palladium. That tariff overhang has prevented some metal from leaving the US and entering the dominant spot trading hub in London, leading to a condition called backwardation, where near-term spot prices trade above prices in the future, indicating tightness.
“It’s as if we’re in a perpetual state of backwardation in the white metals right now, silver especially,” Andrew Matthews, global head of precious metals distribution at UBS Group AG, said in a media call. Backwardations generally result in higher prices, and speculators buy into that strength, he said, “so one creates the other, the chicken-and-the-egg effect, and that’s certainly what we’re seeing right now”.
Still, there have been voices of caution especially for industrial metals. Citigroup Inc and Goldman Sachs Group Inc, for example, both see copper prices retreating later this year. Chinese physical demand has been lacklustre since late 2025.
Haven demand has also been aided by US President Donald Trump’s capture of Venezuela’s leader, his renewed threats to take Greenland, and violent protests in Iran that could lead to a toppling of the Islamic regime there. Citi upgraded its three-month forecasts for gold and silver to US$5,000 per ounce and US$100 an ounce, respectively.
Despite being supported by continued geopolitical volatility, “it would be healthy” for precious metals prices to see some consolidation before the next leg up, said Joni Teves, precious metals strategist at UBS. Still, she said “it’s hard to fight momentum at this point in time”.
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