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Gold sprints to record high on US election uncertainty, rate-cut bets
OCTOBER 18, 2024

Credit: The Edge

Gold hit an all-time high on Thursday, steered by uncertainty surrounding the US election and expectations of more interest rate cuts by major central banks, while spotlight shifted to a slew of US data.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to US$2,680.19 per ounce by 0458 GMT, after hitting a record high of US$2,685.60 earlier in the session.

US gold futures gained 0.2% to US$2,695.90.

"Investors are seeking safe-haven gold as a hedge amid uncertainty over the US election. A Trump presidency should support gold as it might raise trade tensions and widen the budget deficit," said Kelvin Wong, OANDA senior market analyst for Asia Pacific.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on Tuesday defended his protectionist trade policies and other fiscal proposals.

The US retail sales for September and weekly jobless claims data are due later on Thursday.

"Investors will scrutinise data and if it comes below expectations, it could drive gold further up... Lower rate prospects globally are helping as they reduce the cost of holding bullion," Wong added.

Traders see a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the US central bank next month.

The European Central Bank is likely to lower rates for the third time this year. While, British inflation slowed sharply last month, which reinforced bets on a Bank of England rate cut next month.

Some analysts said gold could face immediate resistance at US$2,700 but projected prices could climb to US$2,900 levels by next year.

Lower rates and geopolitical tensions boost non-yielding bullion, which is considered a safe asset.

Increasing geopolitical risks amid elevated tensions in the Middle East has also boosted safe-haven demand, said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ.

Fears of a wider conflict have grown after Israel promised to retaliate for an Iranian missile attack on Oct 1.

Spot silver rose 0.6% to US$31.50. Platinum firmed 0.7% to US$1,000.50 and palladium fell 0.6% to US$1,017.26.

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